# Model

 Transition Matrix G I K M O Q 11 1 11 12 13 101 102 12 HEALTHY DIGESTIVE RESPERATORY OTHER CULLING DEAD 13 14 1 HEALTHY 0,9 0,02 0,02 0,01 0,03 0,02 15 16 11 DIGESTIVE 0,6 0,3 0 0 0,05 0,05 Time step 17 1 to 3 weeks 18 12 RESPERATORY 0,7 0 0,2 0 0,05 0,05 19 20 13 OTHER 0,5 0 0 0,4 0,05 0,05 21 22 101 CULLING 0 0 0 0 1 0 23 24 102 DEAD 0 0 0 0 0 1

I learn how to use @risk.  It used discrete event modelling.

ALS(C36=1;RiskDiscrete(G11:Q11;G14:Q14);ALS(C36=11;RiskDiscrete(G11:Q11;G16:Q16);ALS(C36=12;RiskDiscrete(G11:Q11;G18:Q18);ALS(C36=13;RiskDiscrete(G11:Q11;G20:Q20);ALS(C36=101;RiskDiscrete(G11:Q11;G22:Q22);RiskDiscrete(G11:Q11;G24:Q24))))))

ALS means If. C36=1 refers to the result in the 2nd table.  1 means healthy and the second stage dependent on the previous state.  The probabilities in the matrices will ensure the next stage of a calf life.  Risk discrete is the discrete distribution where we have the numbers and it takes from G11 to Q11 (the names of the states [1,11,12,13,101,102]) and the values are from G14 to Q14 (from the healthy row).

Ifthe C36 (previous states) is 11, ALS(C36=11;RiskDiscrete(G11:Q11;G16:Q16). It means that if the calf is in state 11, the probabilites will be taken from row G11 to Q11 (the name of the state) and the probabilities are from row G16 to Q16.

 MODELLING A CALF B C 35 timesteps Calf 36 1-3weeks 1 37 4-6weeks ### 38 7-9weeks 39 10-12weeks 40 13-15weeks

RESULT OF THE CALF MODELLING