Model

 

 

 

 

Transition Matrix
G I K M O Q
11 1 11 12 13 101 102
12 HEALTHY DIGESTIVE RESPERATORY OTHER CULLING DEAD
13              
14 1 HEALTHY   0,9 0,02 0,02 0,01 0,03 0,02
15  
16 11 DIGESTIVE   0,6 0,3 0 0 0,05 0,05
Time step 17  
1 to 3 weeks 18 12 RESPERATORY 0,7 0 0,2 0 0,05 0,05
19  
20 13 OTHER   0,5 0 0 0,4 0,05 0,05
21  
22 101 CULLING   0 0 0 0 1 0
23  
24 102 DEAD   0 0 0 0 0 1
 

 

I learn how to use @risk.  It used discrete event modelling. 

 

ALS(C36=1;RiskDiscrete(G11:Q11;G14:Q14);ALS(C36=11;RiskDiscrete(G11:Q11;G16:Q16);ALS(C36=12;RiskDiscrete(G11:Q11;G18:Q18);ALS(C36=13;RiskDiscrete(G11:Q11;G20:Q20);ALS(C36=101;RiskDiscrete(G11:Q11;G22:Q22);RiskDiscrete(G11:Q11;G24:Q24))))))

 

 ALS means If. C36=1 refers to the result in the 2nd table.  1 means healthy and the second stage dependent on the previous state.  The probabilities in the matrices will ensure the next stage of a calf life.  Risk discrete is the discrete distribution where we have the numbers and it takes from G11 to Q11 (the names of the states [1,11,12,13,101,102]) and the values are from G14 to Q14 (from the healthy row).
 
Ifthe C36 (previous states) is 11, ALS(C36=11;RiskDiscrete(G11:Q11;G16:Q16). It means that if the calf is in state 11, the probabilites will be taken from row G11 to Q11 (the name of the state) and the probabilities are from row G16 to Q16.
 
  MODELLING A CALF  
  B C
35 timesteps Calf
36 1-3weeks 1
37 4-6weeks ###
38 7-9weeks  
39 10-12weeks  
40 13-15weeks  

RESULT OF THE CALF MODELLING

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: